Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-20 73572.443843 77751.244863 81933.104978 86428.969230 91122.607073 95875.063408 101047.722261
2025-04-27 67370.399687 73803.323929 80424.514845 87739.160351 95583.596479 103733.895559 112832.364317
2025-05-04 62559.111579 70517.574694 78892.725860 88343.505153 98691.130544 109655.936424 122132.702206
2025-05-11 58493.992105 67550.163151 77260.449051 88413.856992 100837.105212 114215.712273 129677.999001
2025-05-18 55283.865296 65215.329656 76039.868779 88666.011907 102939.192303 118523.829944 136775.550779
2025-05-25 52477.179868 63112.832372 74877.957270 88792.511297 104731.294930 122349.261262 143224.461647
2025-06-01 50639.042174 61972.592737 74677.697615 89890.731609 107522.252068 127223.194151 150806.728286
2025-06-08 48293.290926 60105.895228 73518.935298 89770.846636 108817.813704 130319.597123 156308.709211
2025-06-15 47001.899792 59394.665148 73629.727124 91061.234908 111694.647898 135199.802227 163853.480777
2025-06-22 45538.713754 58397.726191 73333.511185 91809.791974 113888.310480 139257.714419 170434.474601
2025-06-29 43843.375113 57041.349659 72538.724316 91900.467196 115251.011907 142306.746566 175815.070606
2025-07-06 42240.180281 55728.026099 71732.947899 91919.659746 116480.126173 145164.476184 180952.335658
2025-07-13 41336.221587 55255.788738 71936.407242 93162.753496 119200.039725 149833.446076 188313.603675
2025-07-20 40459.319798 54780.221806 72106.915585 94345.601028 121840.629838 154418.422446 195608.352666
2025-07-27 39355.410266 53972.453632 71827.306593 94940.389596 123740.495163 158103.321197 201829.357722
2025-08-03 38068.980570 52883.223927 71152.828585 95004.839049 124956.893385 160941.387104 207021.069516
2025-08-10 36951.682798 51970.969886 70664.596595 95269.883308 126397.223921 164039.742641 212532.184288
2025-08-17 35838.486855 51024.617548 70097.634907 95403.471356 127648.962244 166893.212856 217743.660222
2025-08-24 35240.512950 50732.839594 70350.539535 96567.280127 130191.114317 171347.687549 224953.923343
2025-08-31 34118.911548 49707.584925 69621.633096 96440.207442 131074.736541 173726.913065 229587.991666
2025-09-07 33682.488447 49584.633843 70055.075681 97807.602554 133863.136132 178498.364696 237233.933534
2025-09-14 33032.150722 49148.906745 70058.720249 98600.736068 135908.188208 182339.323415 243731.624850
2025-09-21 32131.612127 48343.091474 69547.608421 98696.806066 137037.858394 185017.096742 248769.303253